2011 Heisman Trophy: Andrew Luck’s to lose, right? Not so fast.
A couple of days ago, a friend of mine proposed a bar bet/discussion to me, but for the NFL. It's fairly simple: you're watching a NY Giants game, and you bet some dude at the bar that within the next four (4) offensive possessions for the G-Men, Eli Manning will toss an INT. He led the NFL in INTs last year, and despite the fact that he has a Super Bowl ring and they make the playoffs almost every year, he does tend to throw fairly hapless ducks that become INTs on the semi-regular. So, 12 downs and 1 INT, at any random spot in the game. Would you take that? I probably would. I mean, if the bet is just a beer, whatever.
When you talk about the Heisman this year, you can make a series of similar bets: most of the top dudes who came in behind Cam Newton are back -- Andrew Luck, LaMichael James, Kellen Moore, Denard Robinson, et al.
Everyone -- I mean everyone -- in America would say this is Luck's to lose. He's the most-minted QB since perhaps Peyton Manning. If you read ESPN.com sometimes (why), they did a piece predicting the AFC and NFC powers in 2016. One writer picked the Bills as the pre-eminent AFC power at that time -- and the whole argument was that they'll suck this season, get Luck, and become studs in a few years. That was the whole argument.
In terms of Luck winning the Heisman, consider these elements: (1) he lost Jim Harbaugh; (2) he lost receivers; (3) Jake Locker came back to school as a Heisman/No. 1 pick overall demigod and was a mess (admittedly, he did go No. 8 in the draft); (4) can anyone play that well at QB two years in a row? Then consider this flip side: Luck's toughest games -- Oregon, ND, probably -- are at home. He goes to Arizona (defense isn't amazing), Oregon State (the fog can kill a QB) and USC.
So here's the bet: you start the discussion with Luck. You take Luck, and you give your friend any three other guys. Would you take it? Let us know in the comments.
(Don't take the same bet as I noted about Eli; Luck doesn't throw a lot of INT ducks.)
OK, so if it's not Luck, who will it be? Let's discuss.
(I'm not gonna include YouTubes of all these guys, as it may slow the page up a bit -- but they're quite accessible if you have fingers and search ability, so feel free to consult on your own.)
Marcus Lattimore: I guess I didn't realize South Carolina was pretty good last year -- mostly because they got thrashed in the SEC title game, probably -- and have a ton of dudes coming back. Lattimore is a beast. The SEC has a lot of very good running backs -- Kniles Davis might be the one no one even really notices -- but Lattimore should lap them all. Obviously Stephen Garcia is a big factor in all this; can he lead? Will he lead? It's almost impossible to win the Heisman from a four-loss team, ya know? SoCar is at Georgia, Tennessee, Miss. State, and Arkansas this year. That's not easy.
Denard Robinson: Love him. Literally am in love with him in some respects. Moved in with my girlfriend last year on the weekend they beat Indiana, 42-35. He scored at the last second. Her and her mom went shopping, I watched that game. I turned to some old, semi-toothless guy near me and even he -- drunk, old, embittered -- was captivated. Denard basically was the most interesting thing about the first six weeks of college football last year. Problem is: Brady Hoke's system is going to be different. He might not be as electric this fall.
LaMichael James: You want another bet? Here's one. When Oregon starts a drive -- any drive -- bet your friend a beer they score on that drive, and within 10 real-time minutes. You'll win this bet more often than not, which is insane. James will be invited back to New York for the ceremony, no doubt, especially if they (a) remain in the national title hunt and (b) remain out of controversy's target marks for this recruiting services stuff.
Kellen Moore: Numbers are insane, but he tears up teams most people have never heard of, and the Heisman seems to be (oftentimes) about a "sexy pick." Moore is not sexy. I mean, I wouldn't kick him out of bed, but ... in the sense I meant the word "sexy," he's not.
Trent Richardson: No Mark Ingram + stronger Trent + inexperienced QB = Richardson will be a beast in the SEC this year. They need to be worthy of their No. 2 ranking for him to get up there, and they probably will be -- although the SEC West is a mother this year ("mother" in this case meaning "very difficult").
E.J. Manuel: This would be the Cam Newton-type choice of this year. If FSU runs it (read: if they beat Oklahoma on 9-17 and don't trip up in the ACC), he'll become part of this discussion.
Landry Jones: His numbers will look sick, probably. He slings to a wide net of talent. He's also pretty personable and comes from a school with a ton of Heisman winners, which could be beneficial.
Michael Floyd: How much would the media love a redemption story about a guy at the most famous program in America coming back from a near-suspension to win the most coveted individual trophy in sports? Answer: the media would absolutely love it. (And one curmudgeon would decry it.)
Dayne Crist: If they have a good year ... and he chucks a couple of TDs, maybe a game-winner ... don't count him out. ND brand is very strong.
Geno Smith: Sleeper. New offense that should suit him (Dana H. from Oklahoma State). Easy Big East schedule. Lots of talent. Would have to be considered a wide longshot, but if they beat LSU in September, he'll start getting more and more talk.
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