Drink Discussion: Realistic expectations for the 2010 Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is good. Really good. (And to win elections down there, you need Nick Saban.)
Let's start basic. Last August, I was in Boston. While there -- an erudite Northeastern college town far from Tuscaloosa -- I heard this, and it moved me:
I instantly decided I'd be an Alabama fan that year. Nothing came of that. I essentially rooted against them in every game. I think Saban is probably the best coach in America (if it's not him, it might be Jim Grobe, honestly -- just look at the talent he gets and the records he puts up with it!), but he's a loathsome prick. I think Mark Ingram is scrappy, but he looks like academics are hardly important. Greg McElroy? Ah, white kids from Texas who never lose on the field. Bet he's had it rough in his life.
This year, I'll likely root against Alabama in every game too. Thing is, I'll be losing a lot of those battles with self. They ain't gonna lose much.
I'll do this in a few tiers. Let's start with the dead giveaway wins: San Jose State, Penn State (both at home/PSU is too young to do anything there), Duke, Mississippi, Tennessee (also too young), Mississippi State, Georgia State (could be the single-biggest rout in college football history -- that's their FIRST YEAR AS A PROGRAM). That's 7 wins right there. If you disagree on Mississippi, just know this: no more Dexter McCluster, game is in Tuscaloosa, and it's Alabama's Homecoming. Yep. Like I said, seven wins base. So, they're getting to a bowl. We know that. (I think we already knew that.)
Let's address these three roadies next: at South Carolina, at LSU, and at Arkansas. These are tricky. South Carolina's team won't be bad this year -- at some point, Stephen Garcia has to be the man -- and in Columbia, that could be close. At LSU? LSU seems like a wreck, but a home game involving Saban = charged atmosphere and if Patrick Peterson doesn't come off the field this time, which resulted in this --
-- then maybe it stays close. At Arkansas? That feels like a trap. They (Alabama) has Florida at home the next week ("caught looking ahead"). Alabama's biggest "weakness," insofar as they have one, is the secondary. Arkansas' biggest strength, again insofar as they have one, is the QB (Ryan Mallett) and the WRs (Greg Childs and company). It's in Fayetville. I'm just saying: if the Arkansas D can do anything here, that could be an upset.
Still, none of those three games seems like a loss. They'll all be close -- even Tennessee almost beat 'Bama last year -- but 'Bama wins all three.
That's 10 wins.
That brings us to the last two: Florida and Auburn at home. Florida is way overrated. No one knows what to expect of John Brantley yet. The slogan Gators' people use is "reload, not rebuild." That is true -- but still, Alabama reloaded too (and didn't lose Ingram, Richardson, McElroy, or Jones). Alabama wins at home.
Auburn's interesting. That team is getting good, odd because most people thought Turner Gill, and not Gene Chizik, should have gotten that job. Auburn almost had 'Bama last year -- that was McElroy's "come to Jesus" game right there. My call: if 'Bama goes in with one loss, Auburn might hang 2 on 'em. If 'Bama goes in undefeated with a shot at the SEC title game, they'll beat their in-state rivals.
So essentially, I'm saying 12-0 here for Saban and company. It could be a long fall for me.
Bar-wise, the first official 'Bama watch party of the year -- for that epic SJ State game -- is at The Ainsworth. Other good places to watch 'em include the Brother Jimmy's in Murray Hill (more of an ACC bar, but 'Bama fans will crowd it).
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